The escalating tensions between Iran and Israel have reignited a long-standing geopolitical question: can Iran actually close the Strait of Hormuz? This narrow waterway, barely 21 miles wide at its narrowest point, is more than just a strip of ocean between the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea—it’s a vital artery for the global oil supply. About one-fifth of the world’s total oil consumption flows through it. Any disruption here would send shockwaves through global markets, fuel prices, and international diplomacy. But how realistic is the threat of a shutdown, and what would such a move mean for global trade?
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The Strait of Hormuz: Why It Matters
The Strait of Hormuz is situated between Iran and the United Arab Emirates/Oman and is the only sea passage from the Persian Gulf to the open ocean. Every day, approximately 17 million barrels of oil pass through it. That includes shipments from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, and Iraq. Beyond oil, the strait also facilitates the movement of liquefied natural gas (LNG), particularly from Qatar, which is one of the world’s largest LNG exporters.
Given its strategic importance, any disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could cause oil prices to spike dramatically, affecting everything from airline fuel costs to consumer goods pricing worldwide.
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Iran’s Threats Over the Years
Iran has repeatedly threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz, especially when tensions rise with the West or regional rivals like Saudi Arabia or Israel. These threats have often been in response to economic sanctions, nuclear negotiations, or direct military action. Iran’s logic is clear: if it cannot export oil due to sanctions or a military blockade, then neither should its neighbors.
In 2011, following sanctions on its nuclear program, Iranian military leaders warned they would close the strait. In 2019, after the U.S. pulled out of the nuclear deal and reimposed sanctions, Tehran again issued similar warnings. Iranian officials have publicly stated, “If Iran’s oil is not allowed to pass through the Strait, then no one else’s oil will pass either.”
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Can Iran Actually Shut It Down?
Technically, yes—but only for a short time, and the consequences would be severe, even for Iran itself.
Iran has several tools it could use to attempt a closure. Its navy and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) possess speedboats, submarines, anti-ship missiles, and mines. Iran could deploy naval mines to make the strait unsafe, or launch missile strikes against commercial vessels. It has done similar things before—such as in the 1980s during the Iran-Iraq war, when oil tankers were regularly attacked in what became known as the “Tanker War.”
However, fully shutting the strait would be an act of war with massive global consequences. The United States Navy’s Fifth Fleet is based in nearby Bahrain, and it exists in part to ensure that the Strait remains open. Western powers, as well as China and India (who rely heavily on Gulf oil), would likely respond with military force if Iran ever seriously tried to block it.
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What Would Happen If Iran Did Shut the Strait?
If Iran were to block the Strait of Hormuz, even temporarily, the immediate result would be a massive spike in oil prices. During past periods of tension in the Gulf, oil prices have jumped by $10–$15 per barrel in a matter of hours—even without an actual closure.
In a worst-case scenario where the strait remains blocked for days or weeks:
Oil Supply Disruptions: Countries that rely on Gulf oil, especially in Asia (India, Japan, South Korea, and China), would face energy crises. Tanker routes would be disrupted, and insurance costs for shipping would skyrocket.
Global Market Panic: Stock markets would react sharply, with energy stocks rising and transportation, manufacturing, and consumer goods industries taking a hit.
Military Escalation: The U.S. and its allies would almost certainly respond with military force to reopen the strait, which could escalate into a larger regional war.
Humanitarian Impact: Countries like Yemen and Lebanon, already dealing with economic crises, could see fuel shortages, food insecurity, and inflation due to disrupted aid shipments.
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Iran’s Economic Gamble
Although Iran has the capability to temporarily disrupt shipping, doing so would also severely hurt its own economy. Iran, despite sanctions, still depends on its remaining oil exports—especially to China. Blocking the strait would mean cutting off its own lifeline. Moreover, it would likely trigger even harsher global sanctions or military retaliation.
For Iran, then, the threat of closing the Strait of Hormuz is more of a strategic deterrent than a feasible long-term option. It’s a bargaining chip—a warning to the world that Iran still has power, even if cornered by sanctions or diplomatic isolation.
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Alternatives to the Strait?
Due to the long-standing risk of disruption, some Gulf countries have developed alternative pipelines to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. The UAE has built the Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline, which delivers oil directly to the port of Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman. Saudi Arabia also operates the East-West Pipeline (Petroline), which connects oil fields in the east to ports on the Red Sea.
However, these alternatives can only carry a fraction of the oil that typically goes through the Strait. They reduce dependency but don’t eliminate it.
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Why This Matters Now
The current rise in hostilities between Iran and Israel, especially with regional players like Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iranian-backed militias in Iraq and Syria becoming more active, makes the threat of a Strait closure more plausible than at other times in the past. Iran could see disruption as a form of asymmetric retaliation if Israel attacks its nuclear facilities or if Tehran suffers direct consequences for its support of militant groups.
Adding to the danger is the changing global landscape: the U.S. is more focused on domestic issues, China and Russia are pushing back against Western dominance, and global supply chains are already strained due to wars in Ukraine and Gaza.
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Conclusion: A Dangerous Game of Brinkmanship
The Strait of Hormuz is a global chokepoint not just for oil but for peace. Iran knows the power it holds there, and so does the rest of the world. While a complete and lasting shutdown remains unlikely due to the risks involved for all parties—including Iran—it’s not outside the realm of possibility.
Even a few days of disruption would be enough to jolt global markets and push oil prices into uncharted territory. That’s why every time tensions flare in the Gulf, all eyes turn to the Strait of Hormuz—and why it remains one of the most watched, and potentially dangerous, places on Earth.
In this high-stakes geop
olitical chessboard, one wrong move could have consequences far beyond the Middle East.
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